According to the August 2022 commentary of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, the inflationary expectations of business owners for prices for the next 12 months decreased by 1.1 % compared to the previous month and amounted to 14.1 %.
Inflation expectations are what people expect inflation to be in the future. These expectations about future inflation matter because they affect people’s behaviour in the present.
The share of entrepreneurs who expect the inflation indicator to be at the current level or higher in the next 12 months has decreased from 52 % to 47 %.
In August, most of private companies expected inflation to be around 9-12 % in the next 12 months.
Also, in recent months, the share of businesses that expect inflation to be within the target after one year is rising.
The Uzbek business elite predicts the following factors can most affect the price increase in the next 12 months:
- exchange rate change — 33 %;
- price increase of fuel products and transport services — 29 %;
- increase of wages and allowances — 24 %.
Also, the ratio of entrepreneurs who feared some interruptions in the supply of raw materials imported from abroad and the presence of tariffs and notary restrictions on imports has gone down compared to last month.
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