The Ministry of Water Management in Uzbekistan has voiced concerns about a potential decrease in the country's water supply. Among other things, this is also caused by the Taliban’s construction of a new canal in the Amu Darya River basin. Recent effects of a three-year drought are most noticeable in the lower basin regions of Amu Darya.
Decreasing snowfall, rainfall, and glacier melt due to global climate change have resulted in reduced water consumption in both large and small river basins. Notably, the water flow rate through the Amu Darya’s "Kerki" hydro post has declined by 5% over the past decade, with substantial water shortages recorded in 2018, 2020, and 2021.
Tuyamuyun water reservoir data shows a 22.5% reduction in received water volume in the last decade, reflecting the trend of water scarcity every 4-5 years. Despite these challenges, water supply has been maintained, even during the driest years, to the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Khorezm region, and Turkmenistan's Dashoguz region.
In the next decade, water resources management will remain a critical issue for the region. The construction of a new canal in the Amu Darya River by neighbouring countries poses a significant risk of a 15% decrease in incoming water supply.
Current irrigation practices, heavily reliant on traditional methods and earth canals, contribute to substantial water loss. Therefore, plans are being drafted to transition to more efficient watering technologies by 2030.
The Taliban’s ongoing construction of the Qo'shtepa canal in the Balkh part of the Amu Darya, potentially causing water scarcity in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, raises further concerns. However, according to The Economist, this project might also boost regional trade. With Afghanistan heavily dependent on Uzbekistan for its electricity needs, the Taliban is unlikely to oppose this neighbouring republic.
Climate change, combined with the new canal construction, could lead to Uzbekistan losing up to 25% of its water supply, warns a recent forecast.
In a recent escalation of tensions, a crisis unfolded at the Iran-Afghan border on May 27, further complicating regional dynamics and potentially affecting water security in the area.
Addressing the Liberal Democratic Party meeting on 30 May as part of his election campaign, Mirziyoyev outlined the water issues among five priority areas he would pay particular attention to in the coming years. He said that water-saving technologies would be integrated at all sown areas. The experience of such countries as Turkey, Spain, and China in this direction would be used. Those who implement water-saving technologies would be provided benefits.
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